The Gay Thread

[Snowflake]

Thank you Mr. President!

[innerSpaceman]

I don't think this would have turned any tides, but I am nagged by a supposition of what might have gone on in the minds of more than a few black churchgoers in North Carolina had this whole thing been orchestrated last week instead of this.


Anyway, I am happy - and happen to agree with the Obama campaign's political calculation on this. Sure, it will bring out the crazies - but they were all coming out to get that damn Ni ... out of the white house anyway. Meanwhile, the base needs to be stoked and the youth vote needs to be re-energized. This will help.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by innerSpaceman

I don't think this would have turned any tides, but I am nagged by a supposition of what might have gone on in the minds of more than a few black churchgoers in North Carolina had this whole thing been orchestrated last week instead of this.

What I suppose would have happened is that Amendment 1 would have still passed, and the swell of base/youth/progressive support Obama should receive from this change of heart would have been dampened by the discouraging defeat. By waiting until after the inevitable, he can ride the wave of reactionary emotion rather than be knocked over by it.

[SzczerbiakManiac]

I think it would have been in his best interest to keep dodging the issue until November 7. It's political suicide. As much as we'd like to think otherwise, the majority of voting Americans are appalled by the idea of "letting faggots and dykes get married." Maybe that will be different in 25 years but there's an awful lot of people who need to die off before the scales will tip in our favor.

I'm worried the only guy (with any hope of being President) who actually supports LGBTs just pissed away his chance of being elected.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by SzczerbiakManiac

It's political suicide. As much as we'd like to think otherwise, the majority of voting Americans are appalled by the idea of "letting faggots and dykes get married." Maybe that will be different in 25 years but there's an awful lot of people who need to die off before the scales will tip in our favor.

Says who?

Yeah, that gets skewed once you narrow down to who actually shows up to vote...which is why he's doing this. Because while there are not a lot of people who are opposed to gay marriage who are on the fence about Obama, there are a lot of people who would otherwise support Obama but have been reluctant to show up and cast a vote his way because of his refusal to take a firm stance in favor.

The old people that oppose Obama are going to vote, and vote against him, no matter what. The variable is how many of his younger would-be supporters will be motivated to actively support him. This kind of stance creates the charged atmosphere necessary to get people off their asses to the ballot.

[innerSpaceman]

It all depends on swing states, though - so national polls are pretty useless. And that's why the general worry among some that this was a bad move. Swing States = Redneck States, by and large (and very generally speaking).

But I'm sure they gauged the reaction to the vice-president and the cabinet secretary both floating trial balloons earlier in the week. I'm happy they decided to go ahead with fireworks. I think it's the smart move, and I'm going to trust the multi-zillion dollar smart political campaign that happens to agree with my own informal analysis.

Sure it will be nasty, and this will bring out the crazies in droves. But no more drove than were already driven. And it sure doesn't hurt to have an opponent with such pathetic foot-in-mouth disease.

[Ghoulish Delight]

A few important swing states for Obama: Colorado - 47%-43% in favor of legalize marriage. Virginia - 47%-43% in favor. Iowa - same sex marriage IS legal. New Hampshire - same sex marriage IS legal.

In many of the other swing states, the percentages are close to even. And if the question is expanded to "Should same sex couples at least have the same legal protection via civil unions" the numbers are OVERWHELMINGLY in favor (on the order of 65%-35%) in every swing state.

Compare that to the numbers from less than 10 years ago and it's a complete reversal almost across the board. The momentum is clear.

And I can't believe that there is a large number of undecided voters whose deciding factor is Obama's stance on gay marriage. Do you really think there's a good number of people that are thinking, "Well shoot, I WAS going to vote for him, but now..."

Similarly, are there a lot of people who were sitting around saying, "You know, I was going to sit this one out, but now that he's supporting gay marriage..." I really don't think so. The kinds of people who might get motivated for that reason were by and large already motivated for plenty of other stupid reasons.

But I've talked to PLENTY of people who would be supporters, but were feeling very unmotivated to support him this time because of his weak record on these kinds of issues. Without those people in his corner, he's doomed.

[SzczerbiakManiac]

Our rights by state
It's an interactive color wheel depicting the wide array of rights on a state-by-state basis.

[SzczerbiakManiac]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Do you really think there's a good number of people that are thinking, "Well shoot, I WAS going to vote for him, but now..."

Yes, I do. It's easy to find these people. They like to congregate on Sundays. Strike up a conversation with them, you'll see what I'm talking about.

[Morrigoon]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Similarly, are there a lot of people who were sitting around saying, "You know, I was going to sit this one out, but now that he's supporting gay marriage..." I really don't think so.

I can name one person who said just that.