ok ok i give

scaeagles · 03-02-2006, 06:11 AM

I don't pay much mind to polls, especially not this one. I really don't think his numbers are that bad, but they are certainly not good. In the polling sample of this particular poll, there was a full third more democrats polled than republicans (I had read the data, but can't seem to find the link).

If that margin was equalized and only half the republicans said they approved, it would have been 40%.

Now, I am not saying that 40% is anything to write home about. But it isn't 34%.

When CBS was questioned about the polling sample, they said that it was valid because people were changing their party affiliation because of the posts deal. People may be pissed about the ports deal, but they aren't switching party affiliation.

Scrooge McSam · 03-02-2006, 08:44 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

In the polling sample of this particular poll, there was a full third more democrats polled than republicans (I had read the data, but can't seem to find the link).

If that margin was equalized and only half the republicans said they approved, it would have been 40%.

Now, I am not saying that 40% is anything to write home about. But it isn't 34%.

What would be the use of polling political affiliations in equal numbers when they are not equal IRL?

Do you realize that people claiming to be democrat outnumber those claiming to republican by between 7 and 9 percentage points, and that further 34% percent of the population claim to be independent?

This is the reason the poll was conducted with 28% republican participation, 37% democratic participation and 34% independent participation.

Equalizing the poll to 50% republican and 50% democratic would serve only to falsely inflate Mr. Bush's numbers. But of course, if that's all you're after...

Now, there is the point to be made that little can be gleaned from this concerning future elections, since not all people vote, and those that do are fairly evenly divided here lately.

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

When CBS was questioned about the polling sample, they said that it was valid because people were changing their party affiliation because of the posts deal.

THAT I haven't heard. Could you link that article when you find it?

03-02-2006, 06:11 AM	#1
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	I don't pay much mind to polls, especially not this one. I really don't think his numbers are that bad, but they are certainly not good. In the polling sample of this particular poll, there was a full third more democrats polled than republicans (I had read the data, but can't seem to find the link). If that margin was equalized and only half the republicans said they approved, it would have been 40%. Now, I am not saying that 40% is anything to write home about. But it isn't 34%. When CBS was questioned about the polling sample, they said that it was valid because people were changing their party affiliation because of the posts deal. People may be pissed about the ports deal, but they aren't switching party affiliation.
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