The Bird Flu is Comming! The Bird Flu is Comming!

[xharryb]

I keep seeing the comercials for this new bird flu movie that's coming on TV soon (ABC I think). Between this extremely sensationalized film and the daily news reports, I'm seriously waiting for the wackos to come out of the wood work overreracting.

[AllyOops!]

Seriously, I had pneumonia a month ago. My very first time. And I had it for a month. I told everybody I thought I had bird flu. Or typhoid. Or the plague. Or black lung disease even thoughI've never mined. I'm dramatic like that. My ass is always dying.

It's not an epidemic, but pandemic. My mom put that fear in me. Thank you, su madre.That scares the daylights outta me.

[Moonliner]

I found this tidbit on Webmd.com:

The H5N1 bird flu bug has been particularly deadly for people unlucky enough to catch it from poultry. But if the bug learns to spread among humans, it almost certainly won't be as deadly as it is now, says Ira Longini, PhD, professor of biostatistics at Emory University's Rollins School of Public Health.

"Avian H5N1 looks like a 70% case fatality in humans. But this has never been true of any human strain," Longini told WebMD last December. "There has never been any human influenza virus that has behaved that way in recorded or even unrecorded history. The case fatality of even highly virulent flu strains are a couple of deaths per 10,000 people."

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

The case fatality of even highly virulent flu strains are a couple of deaths per 10,000 people."

I have problems with that number. The 1918 flu epidemic killed between 20 and 40 million people. World population was perhaps 2 billion at the time (earliest numbers I can find are for 1950, and population was 2.5 billion). That's 1% of the world population. One out of every one hundred people died. And that includes everyone, not just infected. So "a couple of deaths per 10,000 people" is a gross understatement of the death rates possible with an influenze epidemic. True, 75% is absurdly high, but I'm not even particularly comfortable with the 1-2% represented by the 1918 pandemic.

That being said...I think it's possible to mitigate the risks without resorting to the sensationalism and fear-mongering that people seem to like.

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

I have problems with that number. The 1918 flu epidemic killed between 20 and 40 million people....

I tracked down Dr. Longini. Here is the response he sent:

Originally Posted by Dr. Longini

yes, you are right about 1918. this was a bit out of context.
the case fatality rate for 1957 h2n2 and 1968 h3n2 was on the order of
1-2/10,000 when averaged over all age groups. for 1918 it was on the
order of 1-5/100, two orders of magnitude higher. however, that very
high rate was before antibiotics that are now use to treat secondary
bacterial pneumonia. probably the major killer of for flu cases. this
would be of no use against primary viral pneumonia. in our recent work,
we tend to stay away from predictions of case fatality rates for
pandemic flu. a big unknown. cheers, ira longini



--
Ira M. Longini, Jr., Ph.D.
Professor
Program in Biostatistics and Biomathematics
Hutchinson Cancer Research Center
and
Department of Biostatistics
U. Washington School of Public Health and Community Medicine


1100 Fairview Ave. N., LE-400
P.O. Box 19024
Seattle, WA 98109-1024


Phone: 206-667-2721
Cell: 404-275-5156
Fax: 206-667-4812

So basically he's admitting he was wrong when he said "in recorded or even unrecorded history"

Nice catch GD.

[Hades]

I'm convinced that majority of the sensationalized news over the bird flu (and other stories of that nature) are all just planted by major companies to drive their particular businesses sales and stocks up. Gas? Pharmaceuticals? Housing shortages? It's all is driven by fear and speculation. All the money fear can generate. Is my skepticism showing much?