The Bird Flu is Comming! The Bird Flu is Comming!

katiesue · 05-04-2006, 11:01 AM

In 1918 wouldn't a larger portion of the population have been malnourished and have other medical conditions that would have weakened their defenses? Just wondering.

Ghoulish Delight · 05-04-2006, 11:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by katiesue

In 1918 wouldn't a larger portion of the population have been malnourished and have other medical conditions that would have weakened their defenses? Just wondering.

Oh, absolutely. I'm not arguing that the bird flu is likely to be as bad as the 1918 outbreak. But the " never more than a couple in 10,000" number (which is .02%) is shown to be clearly ridiculous by a simple look at history. I mean, he's off by a factor of 100 on that. Even if a modern-day flu pandemic is only half as deadly as 1918's, that's 50 times more than Mr. Longini's "facts".

Moonliner · 05-04-2006, 11:17 AM

Ummmm..

2,000,000,000 * .02 = 40,000,000

So overall ~ 2% of the population died from bird flu.

If 2 in 10,000 died out of a 2 Billion population then you would have:

(2,000,000,000 / 10,000) * 2 = 400,000

Looks like I need to write a letter to Dr. Ira.

05-04-2006, 11:01 AM	#1
katiesue Senior Member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: San Diego Posts: 4,678	In 1918 wouldn't a larger portion of the population have been malnourished and have other medical conditions that would have weakened their defenses? Just wondering.
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05-04-2006, 11:17 AM	#3
Moonliner 8/30/14 - Disneyland -10k or Bust. Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 9,022	Ummmm.. 2,000,000,000 * .02 = 40,000,000 So overall ~ 2% of the population died from bird flu. If 2 in 10,000 died out of a 2 Billion population then you would have: (2,000,000,000 / 10,000) * 2 = 400,000 Looks like I need to write a letter to Dr. Ira. __________________ - Taking it one step at a time. Last edited by Moonliner : 05-04-2006 at 11:41 AM.
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