The Bird Flu is Comming! The Bird Flu is Comming!

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by katiesue

In 1918 wouldn't a larger portion of the population have been malnourished and have other medical conditions that would have weakened their defenses? Just wondering.

Oh, absolutely. I'm not arguing that the bird flu is likely to be as bad as the 1918 outbreak. But the " never more than a couple in 10,000" number (which is .02%) is shown to be clearly ridiculous by a simple look at history. I mean, he's off by a factor of 100 on that. Even if a modern-day flu pandemic is only half as deadly as 1918's, that's 50 times more than Mr. Longini's "facts".

[Moonliner]

Ummmm..

2,000,000,000 * .02 = 40,000,000

So overall ~ 2% of the population died from bird flu.

If 2 in 10,000 died out of a 2 Billion population then you would have:

(2,000,000,000 / 10,000) * 2 = 400,000

Looks like I need to write a letter to Dr. Ira.

[BarTopDancer]

Originally Posted by Disneyphile

I refuse to stockpile for a "news scare". However, I was raised to be prepared at home with a week's supply of food and water, just in case anything would ever go wrong - earthquake, personal illness, etc. That's more than sufficient to me.

That's what I do. But after Katrina showed we cannot count on FEMA I'm slowly stocking up for a month. That just means I have food in my emergency kit and extra dry goods in my pantry. If there was a really bad earthquake I'd pack my backpack and start making my way to my parents house where there would be enough food for a few months (just the way they shop).

Originally Posted by Prudence

I'm too busy worrying about the new albuterol shortage. Bird flu won't mean squat if I die from the common cold first.

What abuterol shortage?

[Prudence]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

What abuterol shortage?

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/...hcenter27.html

[Gemini Cricket]

Aren't we due for another asteroid story? You know where they say one could hit Earth and then doesn't...

[scaeagles]

Best I can do, Brad -

Newest asteroid impact hazzard

"At the end of February, orbital calculations for near-Earth-asteroid (NEA) 2004 VD17 indicated that the risk of an impact within the next century (specifically on May 4, 2102) was higher than that of any other known asteroid."

Not that scary, I suppose.

[Not Afraid]

I miss Skylab.

[Gemini Cricket]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Not that scary, I suppose.

Interesting, though.


Everytime something comes on the news that we're supposed to panic about, I keep thinking about the townspeople of South Park screaming and running and trampling each other...

[BarTopDancer]

Originally Posted by Prudence

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/...hcenter27.html

That article doesn't seem like it's a reason to panic...

Albuterol may not be available on a day-to-day basis all month long at your usual pharmacy, for example, but another might have it. When it's tight, patients get only one container at a time and refill more frequently.

[Prudence]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

That article doesn't seem like it's a reason to panic...

Oh, I'm not in a panic. I'm just more panicked about that then bird flu. Not that it really matters to me, since I'm down to using my inhaler a couple times a year. Actually, my albuterol concern is more for the long-term. If I do get sick, I sometimes *need* an inhaler or I can spend my evenings in urgent care with the nebulizer thingy. I'm more concerned about a couple years from now when my current stock is no longer good.

(Although if it's anything like the way they handle flu shots around here, it's not at all like they say. If "your" pharmacy or medical center is out, you can't go to another one. Not even if you want to pay cash and forgo insurance. The pharmacies will only serve existing customers.)