The random political thoughts thread (Part Deux)

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

A better long term solution is part of it, yes. The reality of the situation, though, is those things don't do what oil does yet.

Yet. Let gas get to $10/gallon and we'll see how fast "Yet" changes to "Now". It's not the government that will provide energy independence and it's not the rabid eco freaks either. It's the free market. The longer gas is held to artificially low levels (yes $3/gal is low) it will retard development of alternatives. So I say NO NEW WELLS, no new sources of oil, and let George fulfill his wet dreams by invading another oil producing country or two. Then let the market sort itself out and we'll be energy independent in no time.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

Yet. Let gas get to $10/gallon and we'll see how fast "Yet" changes to "Now". It's not the government that will provide energy independence and it's not the rabid eco freaks either. It's the free market. The longer gas is held to artificially low levels (yes $3/gal is low) it will retard development of alternatives. So I say NO NEW WELLS, no new sources of oil, and let George fulfill his wet dreams by invading another oil producing country or two. Then let the market sort itself out and we'll be energy independent in no time.

I go back and forth on whether I'm okay with that path. On the one hand, I totally agree. Nothing will drive innovation like truly high gas prices.

On the other hand, because the price of oil/gasoline does NOT just affect how much we pay at the pump, I worry about the wide reaching effect on the overall economy being too much to bear. Increased fuel and engery costs will affect the price of every single good bought and sold in this country. Costs will go up in every single link of the supply chain, from manufacturing, to transportation, to warehousing, to the cost of running a storefront.

The increase in oil price has thus far been modest, all things considered, and suppliers have done fairly well to not pass off their increased costs to the consumer. But that won't last much longer. I guarantee that by the time we start seeing $5+/gallon at the pump, the cost of living in this country will start to take a serious hit. And I shudder to think what that will mean for the level of poverty.

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

... too much to bear.

What is too much to bear? We made it through the depression, WWII, 1987 stock market crash, .com bust, etc...

Hell perhaps if people had something REAL to worry about like how to get to work or how to put food on the table perhaps we'd stop pissing away billions on worthless programs like the Department of Homeland Security.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by Moonliner

What is too much to bear? We made it through the depression, WWII, 1987 stock market crash, .com bust, etc...

Hell perhaps if people had something REAL to worry about like how to get to work or how to put food on the table perhaps we'd stop pissing away billions on worthless programs like the Department of Homeland Security.

Well, I'm glad you're willing to sacrifice the bottom 30% of our country's wage-earners...I'd personally rather find a solution that doesn't involve mass poverty and starvation.

[scaeagles]

Free market....are you suggesting there is no monetary incentive to inventors and innovators at present to come up with the practical hydrogen fuel cell? They would get rich regardless of the current oil price. $10/gallon doesn't change that.

Considering that right now oil can be (and is being) excvtracted from the nearly limitless supply of shale in the rocky mountains at a cost of about $90/barrell, it is not practical to think that oil will ever get much above that. As the price of oil increases and the processes to extract that oil becaome more efficient and economical, more and more of our domestic supply will come from that source (until radical enviromentalists stop it ).

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Well, I'm glad you're willing to sacrifice the bottom 30% of our country's wage-earners...I'd personally rather find a solution that doesn't involve mass poverty and starvation.

I suppose a tie-in to the illegal immigrant issue would be a bit much...

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Free market....are you suggesting there is no monetary incentive to inventors and innovators at present to come up with the practical hydrogen fuel cell? They would get rich regardless of the current oil price.

Not particularly. Look at hybrids. It seems like the companies should be making a fortune off of them, but they're not? Why not? Because the volume isn't there. And because the volume isn't there, the cost of manufacture, parts, and repair is high. And because those are high, the consumer doesn't save money by making the switch. So consumer adoption has been slow. It won't accelerate until it gets past that balance point (it's been about a wash to own a hybrid vs. a similar class traditional compustion engine vehicle for a few years now).

The same will be true for any alternate fuel solution. The cost of manufacturing, of implementing the infrastructure to support the technology (fuel stations, e.g.), and the cost of maintaining a vehicle with a new technology will be expensive compared to the ridiculously cheap production of tradictional vehicles. Therefore, owning one will remain expensive compared to traditional vehicles. So, adoption will remain slow until there's enough of a demand and infrastructure for those costs to drop below the costs of owning traditional vehicles. And one way that could be accelerated is with a significant increase in fuel cost.

Or to put it more succinctly, if gas were double what it is now, everyone would be buying hybrids.

[scaeagles]

I guess I don't see owning a hybrid as a form of energy independence. Still needs gas, though significantly less. I haven't run any numbers (nor would I really know how to in the instance), but while I'm sure if everyone owned a hybrid our need for oil would go down, it wouldn't make that huge of a dent in what we import. Energy independence means we don't import energy.

[Moonliner]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Free market....are you suggesting there is no monetary incentive to inventors and innovators at present to come up with the practical hydrogen fuel cell? They would get rich regardless of the current oil price. $10/gallon doesn't change that.

Considering that right now oil can be (and is being) extracted from the nearly limitless supply of shale in the rocky mountains at a cost of about $90/barrel, it is not practical to think that oil will ever get much above that. As the price of oil increases and the processes to extract that oil become more efficient and economical, more and more of our domestic supply will come from that source (until radical environmentalists stop it ).

I'm suggesting there would be a MUCH larger market for fuel cell's and thus much more development if economic conditions changed to favor it.

So if we have ~$3.00/Gallon with oil at ~$70 per barrel then is it safe to assume we would see something like just over $4.00/Gallon if the price went to $90? Humm, you're right. That's not enough. Of course I doubt we have the production capacity to turn enough shale into gas for every car,truck,van,ship,plane,etc.. in the country.. It would take years to build that. By then we should have some real solutions.

(Edited to add: Damn you GD and your fast typing fingers too for getting this same basic argument out faster... )


Oh, and on a techie side note, the part of the equation that is missing is not efficient/affordable fuel cells, it's separating massive amounts of hydrogen from water cheaply/cleanly.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I guess I don't see owning a hybrid as a form of energy independence. Still needs gas, though significantly less. I haven't run any numbers (nor would I really know how to in the instance), but while I'm sure if everyone owned a hybrid our need for oil would go down, it wouldn't make that huge of a dent in what we import. Energy independence means we don't import energy.

I didn't say that hybrids are a solution. But they are a good case study that shows that altruistic value is not enough to make a product sell. Economic incentive on the demand side is what will drive this country to a long term energy solution.