CA Election - Page 3

scaeagles · 06-07-2006, 10:50 AM

I didn't claim to know anything about CA politics or the makeup of the district. Was just hypothesizing.

I do recall watching a few talking head shows - like Chris Matthews - and there was a lot of talking about how the dem was going to win. I wonder if this is a disappointment or a moral victory for the dems. Of course, it will be portrayed as a moral victory regardless of what the true feelings are.

Ghoulish Delight · 06-07-2006, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I didn't claim to know anything about CA politics or the makeup of the district. Was just hypothesizing.

And we were just responding to your hypothesis with a bit more background information.

Alex · 06-07-2006, 10:55 AM

And since it was a special election, the two candidates will immediately begin going at it all over again since the term the republican just won ends in November.

scaeagles · 06-07-2006, 10:56 AM

I do appreciate it. Really. Does anyone know the turnout?

Alex, will the same dem be running against him or will there be some sort of dem primary?

Alex · 06-07-2006, 11:09 AM

Since yesterday's election was the Democratic primary as well, I don't know for sure. I only know that the news story I saw this morning said the two would immediately go at it again. I don't know if this is an established fact or just an assumption.

Alex · 06-07-2006, 11:16 AM

For the Duke Cunningham special election, the turnout was 35.42%. California's other special election to replace John Campbell had only 24.21% turnout.

The R received 60,319 and the D received 55,587. The local party registrations are about 40% D and 60% R so the D overperformed a bit (getting 45%) while the R underperformed quite a bit (getting 49%). An independent candidate received almost 4% of the vote. However, he is a Republican who campaigned on the single-ticket issue of strong border enforcement. So, combining the independent and the official R candidate it looks like about 5% of voters jumped from R designation to a D vote.

Alex · 06-07-2006, 11:20 AM

Responding to myself responding to myself. Just read an article in the Washington Post that mentions that the democratic candidate essentially got the same percentage of the vote in that district as Kerry did in 2004.

So the supposed Republican tilt of that district may not be as strong has the media hyped.

scaeagles · 06-07-2006, 11:34 AM

A little more info -

SF Gate article from April

Quote:

But June 6 is California's primary election day. While the 50th will elect either Busby or Bilbray to a six-month term, Democratic voters also will nominate Busby to be on the November ballot seeking a full term.

I did some turnout research....when Cunningham won in 2004, 215,000+ votes were cast in that district with him geting 58%. Yesterday, only 123,500+ were cast. Significantly less. One thing I cannot find is what the turnout was for democrats and republicans separately.

SacTown Chronic · 06-07-2006, 01:57 PM

Oops - meant to hit the preview button.

06-07-2006, 10:50 AM	#21
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	I didn't claim to know anything about CA politics or the makeup of the district. Was just hypothesizing. I do recall watching a few talking head shows - like Chris Matthews - and there was a lot of talking about how the dem was going to win. I wonder if this is a disappointment or a moral victory for the dems. Of course, it will be portrayed as a moral victory regardless of what the true feelings are.
	Submit to Quotes

06-07-2006, 10:55 AM	#23
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	And since it was a special election, the two candidates will immediately begin going at it all over again since the term the republican just won ends in November.
	Submit to Quotes

06-07-2006, 10:56 AM	#24
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	I do appreciate it. Really. Does anyone know the turnout? Alex, will the same dem be running against him or will there be some sort of dem primary?
	Submit to Quotes

06-07-2006, 11:09 AM	#25
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Since yesterday's election was the Democratic primary as well, I don't know for sure. I only know that the news story I saw this morning said the two would immediately go at it again. I don't know if this is an established fact or just an assumption.
	Submit to Quotes

06-07-2006, 11:16 AM	#26
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	For the Duke Cunningham special election, the turnout was 35.42%. California's other special election to replace John Campbell had only 24.21% turnout. The R received 60,319 and the D received 55,587. The local party registrations are about 40% D and 60% R so the D overperformed a bit (getting 45%) while the R underperformed quite a bit (getting 49%). An independent candidate received almost 4% of the vote. However, he is a Republican who campaigned on the single-ticket issue of strong border enforcement. So, combining the independent and the official R candidate it looks like about 5% of voters jumped from R designation to a D vote.
	Submit to Quotes

06-07-2006, 11:20 AM	#27
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Responding to myself responding to myself. Just read an article in the Washington Post that mentions that the democratic candidate essentially got the same percentage of the vote in that district as Kerry did in 2004. So the supposed Republican tilt of that district may not be as strong has the media hyped.
	Submit to Quotes

06-07-2006, 01:57 PM	#29
SacTown Chronic the myth of the dream Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 2,217	Oops - meant to hit the preview button.
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