The Dixie Chicks

[JWBear]

Originally Posted by Nephythys

Exactly...

Besides that- The "other side" still offers nothing to vote for.

I beg to differ... The biggest thing "the other side" has going for it is that they aren't the ones ruining... er... running things right now!

[Nephythys]

Originally Posted by JWBear

I beg to differ... The biggest thing "the other side" has going for it is that they aren't the ones ruining... er... running things right now!

so, the idea is not to have someone to vote FOR it's to have someone to vote AGAINST? Do you really think that will win elections?

[JWBear]

Originally Posted by Nephythys

so, the idea is not to have someone to vote FOR it's to have someone to vote AGAINST? Do you really think that will win elections?

Based on the polls, it will in November.

People are fed-up with what's been going on. The Republican leadership will only have itself to blame if they lose one or both houses.

[Alex]

Originally Posted by JWBear

Based on the polls, it will in November.

People are fed-up with what's been going on. The Republican leadership will only have itself to blame if they lose one or both houses.

Based on the polls that matter, which are not the national opinion polls generally trumpeted in the press, don't get you're hopes up for either house changing control in November.

ElectionProjection was very good at forecasting the 2004 results and so far they predict a 2 seat gain in the Senate and a 7 seat gain in the House. Neither of which is nearly enough to regain control for the Democrats. The big swing, however, will probably be in governorships. Election Predictions seems to be good at keeping a neutral political point of view but their analysis isn't much tested yet. They're a bit more optimistic than ElectionProjection but still don't see either house going to the Democrats.

The problem with looking at the national polls is that they don't reflect our gerrymandered reality. San Francisco can move from 70% anti-Bush to 100% anti-Bush and not one House or Senate seat will necessarily change hands. Similarly, Alabama's 3rd district could go from 90% pro-Bush to 30% pro-Bush and it probably wouldn't signal a change in party victory at the state office level. It also doesn't change the fact that even if half of all registered Republicans report that they think Republicans aren't going to do well, most of them will still not vote for a Democrat (and keep in mind that quite a few people are mad at their office-holders for not being conservative enough).

Things could certainly change, but right now I don't see much hope for the Democrats getting either house back in November. Their hopes are much stronger in 2008 when the presidential ticket has a much stronger draft the lower offices can work with.

[Nephythys]

Originally Posted by JWBear

Based on the polls, it will in November.

People are fed-up with what's been going on. The Republican leadership will only have itself to blame if they lose one or both houses.

While I see your point- I don't think the numbers work out. I don't think enough seats are up for grabs in areas that are going to make much difference.

How many governorships are up for grabs? That is often seen as an indication.

I know I will be thrilled to see a change in ours out here- can't stand Owens.

(ah yes, like Alex said)

I do wonder who is going to run for POTUS- on both tickets. Should be fascinating to watch-

(I wonder what polls- can those things ever be trusted?)

[Alex]

Current projections suggest Republicans will lose 6-8 governorships.

[Nephythys]

Originally Posted by Alex Stroup

Current projections suggest Republicans will lose 6-8 governorships.

In which states?
...and are any dem Gov's at risk?

[Alex]

Originally Posted by Nephythys

In which states?
...and are any dem Gov's at risk?

Here's one set of predictions based on current state polling.

It has the Democrats gaining Alaska, Colorado, Arkansas, Ohio, New York, Maryland, and Connecticut. Currently no gains are projected for the Republicans.

There are no gubornatorial races in Washington, Nevada, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, Indiana, Kentucky, West Viriginia, Virginia, North Carolina, or New Jersey. All other states are potentially up for grabs.

Many of the states are very close and could easily change before November. Of the five currently project Democrat gains only in New York and Ohio is the Democratic candidate well in the lead. Massachusetts is probably only still close because they haven't had their primaries yet and once they do it seems reasonable to assume a quick Democratic swing (how in the world did Massachusetts end up with a Republican governor?).