Atmospheric Science, the weather, and global warming

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Alex Stroup

The people connecting last years hurricanes to global warming with any certainty were engaged in hyperbole. Very few atmospheric scientists (pretty much all of whom believe in anthrogenic global warming) were willing to make the connection and generally discounted it.

Perception is reality. I have cited here that the links between global warming and increased hurricane activity were bogus at best.

The media was certainly overplaying it, and if I recall, one of the posters for An Inconvenient Truth had a gigantic hurricane on it. The attempt by many in the media and those who are pushing for huge reform is to link two very active seasons in 2004 and 2005 to global warming.

This is why it is so hard to sort out fact from hyperbole. The sensational story of impending disaster with unstoppable causation is better than the story of a statistical anomaly.

[Alex]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Perception is reality.

Who's perception gets to be the reality? Because your perception on this one doesn't match mine.

and if I recall, one of the posters for An Inconvenient Truth had a gigantic hurricane on it.

Yes, An Inconvenient Truth talks about Hurricane Katrina but it doesn't say that global warning caused Katrina. It uses Katrina as an example of what we can expect to see more of if the predictions for global warming effects are accurate.

Presumably you'll agree (or accept the voluminous scientific evidence) that warmer surface water temperatures increase the strength of hurricanes and that Katrina was strengthened by the high temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico last year (don't worry, I'm not asking you to agree that those specific temperatures were caused by global warming)?

So what to expect then, asks the film, if global warming makes those high surface temperatures into the standard condition rather than annual anomolies.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Alex Stroup

Who's perception gets to be the reality? Because your perception on this one doesn't match mine.

Yes, An Inconvenient Truth talks about Hurricane Katrina but it doesn't say that global warning caused Katrina.

I'm talking about the perception often put forth by the media. I haven't seen An Inconvenient Truth, but for what purpose would the massive hurricane on the poster be there for? It is designed to give the perception that global warming is causing killer hurricanes. This is the perception I was talking about. It isn't the case that global warming is causing killer hurricanes, but it would seem like there is a goal to make the perception to be such.

[Alex]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

It is designed to give the perception that global warming is causing killer hurricanes.

No, it is to say that global warming is going to cause massive hurricanes. It is impossible to pin any individual hurricane on global warming but if global warming sets in to a sufficient degree it is pretty much accepted by everybody that the hurricanes will be bigger.

Kind of like it is impossible to pin any individual case of lung cancer on smoking, but smoking certainly causes plenty of lung cancer.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Alex Stroup

No, it is to say that global warming is going to cause massive hurricanes.

The the relatively educated, certainly. To the uneducated masses, though, knowing that the movie is about global warming, and knowing that there were lots of big hurricanes recently, the conclusion most easily reached is that global warming is causing these big hurricanes now.

[Alex]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

The the relatively educated, certainly. To the uneducated masses, though, knowing that the movie is about global warming, and knowing that there were lots of big hurricanes recently, the conclusion most easily reached is that global warming is causing these big hurricanes now.

So who is to blame for stupid people jumping to conclusions? And why aren't they educated. All they need to do is take 90 minutes before just assuming that their preferred pundit will tell them the truth about how awful/wonderful it is.

Atmospheric scientists have been spending the last 15 years trying to "educate" people on what they believe is happening and what it may mean. It's their fault that the idiots of the world prefer to get their opinions from talk radio and network political dramas?