Yes, we can. - Page 212

Cadaverous Pallor · 10-05-2008, 03:54 PM

No way they'd do that. It's stupid.

Alex · 10-05-2008, 07:22 PM

I think it was earlier in this thread that we discussed polling flaws and whatnot. The poitn was made about the pollsters being pros at their jobs and doing the best to adjust for the difficulties of random sample polling.

I agree with that idea, and the difficulty is that while you know some polls will be wrong, it is difficult to know which ones. Anyway, an interesting case in point.

Two surveys for Minnesota. Same polling period. Star Tribune has Obama up by 18 in that state. SurveyUSA has McCain up by 1. Anyway, found it interesting.

bewitched · 10-05-2008, 08:14 PM

As much as I would love Clinton on the ticket, I think it is far more likely that Palin would have some kind of "emergency."

That said, I think the chance of either VP choice bailing, with 1 month left, is nil to less than nil.

scaeagles · 10-05-2008, 08:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

Two surveys for Minnesota. Same polling period. Star Tribune has Obama up by 18 in that state. SurveyUSA has McCain up by 1. Anyway, found it interesting.

That is an amazing gap.

BDBopper · 10-06-2008, 05:03 AM

I don't think either poll seems to be accurate. I predict a 5 percent win for Obama in Minnesota. Still close but but as close as it was there during 2000 and 2004.

Ghoulish Delight · 10-06-2008, 11:08 AM

At this point, Obama is where Bush was, from an electoral standpoint, against both Gore and Kerry. All he has to do is hold all the blue states, and win a small handful of toss-ups (all leaning his direction right now) and he has more than 270. McCain will have to hold all the red states, and either take a blue state or take every single toss-up state (all of which are leaning Obama). Not outside the realm of possibility, Kerry and Gore came vey close to pulling it off, but they didn't, the odds are long.

Cadaverous Pallor · 10-06-2008, 12:58 PM

I don't think I can hold my breath for a whole month more

Tom · 10-06-2008, 02:32 PM

Great post, Tenigma! Thanks or all the info and enthusiasm.

Unfortunately, though, you were a little off on the vote allocation in Nebraska. They give two electoral votes to the candidate who wins statewide, and one electoral apiece vote for the winner of each of the state's three congressional districts. There is a possibility that Obama could be competitive in the states second Congressional district, which includes Omaha.

To back up your final point, I saw two(!) polls today that had Obama up by double digits in Virginia.

Snowflake · 10-06-2008, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

Great post, Tenigma! Thanks or all the info and enthusiasm.

Ditto

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

To back up your final point, I saw two(!) polls today that had Obama up by double digits in Virginia.

:-) Big grin here.
In my neighborhood when I lived in Warrenton, I was the sole blue dot in a sea of red!

wendybeth · 10-07-2008, 12:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tom

.......I saw two(!) polls today that had Obama up by double digits in Virginia.

That's because Virginia is Communistland.

10-05-2008, 03:54 PM	#1
Cadaverous Pallor ohhhh baby Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Parental Bliss Posts: 12,364	No way they'd do that. It's stupid. __________________ The second star to the right shines in the night for you
	Submit to Quotes

10-05-2008, 07:22 PM	#2
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	I think it was earlier in this thread that we discussed polling flaws and whatnot. The poitn was made about the pollsters being pros at their jobs and doing the best to adjust for the difficulties of random sample polling. I agree with that idea, and the difficulty is that while you know some polls will be wrong, it is difficult to know which ones. Anyway, an interesting case in point. Two surveys for Minnesota. Same polling period. Star Tribune has Obama up by 18 in that state. SurveyUSA has McCain up by 1. Anyway, found it interesting.
	Submit to Quotes

10-05-2008, 08:14 PM	#3
bewitched 101% Yummy! Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: I know Kung Fu. Posts: 1,413	As much as I would love Clinton on the ticket, I think it is far more likely that Palin would have some kind of "emergency." That said, I think the chance of either VP choice bailing, with 1 month left, is nil to less than nil. __________________ ~Whitney Wondering about the future of Ellington Woodard's punk@ss sh!t.
	Submit to Quotes

10-06-2008, 05:03 AM	#5
BDBopper Not Taking Any Crap! Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Cleaning Up America, One Step At A Time! Posts: 1,694	I don't think either poll seems to be accurate. I predict a 5 percent win for Obama in Minnesota. Still close but but as close as it was there during 2000 and 2004.
	Submit to Quotes

10-06-2008, 11:08 AM	#6
Ghoulish Delight I Floop the Pig Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Alternative Swankstyle Posts: 19,348	At this point, Obama is where Bush was, from an electoral standpoint, against both Gore and Kerry. All he has to do is hold all the blue states, and win a small handful of toss-ups (all leaning his direction right now) and he has more than 270. McCain will have to hold all the red states, and either take a blue state or take every single toss-up state (all of which are leaning Obama). Not outside the realm of possibility, Kerry and Gore came vey close to pulling it off, but they didn't, the odds are long. __________________ 'He who receives an idea from me, receives instruction himself without lessening mine; as he who lights his taper at mine, receives light without darkening me.' -TJ
	Submit to Quotes

10-06-2008, 12:58 PM	#7
Cadaverous Pallor ohhhh baby Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Parental Bliss Posts: 12,364	I don't think I can hold my breath for a whole month more __________________ The second star to the right shines in the night for you
	Submit to Quotes

10-06-2008, 02:32 PM	#8
Tom Valued member Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Los Angeles Posts: 541	Great post, Tenigma! Thanks or all the info and enthusiasm. Unfortunately, though, you were a little off on the vote allocation in Nebraska. They give two electoral votes to the candidate who wins statewide, and one electoral apiece vote for the winner of each of the state's three congressional districts. There is a possibility that Obama could be competitive in the states second Congressional district, which includes Omaha. To back up your final point, I saw two(!) polls today that had Obama up by double digits in Virginia.
	Submit to Quotes