Yes, we can.

[Gemini Cricket]

Homer Simpson tries to vote for Obama

[Ghoulish Delight]

At this point, Obama is where Bush was, from an electoral standpoint, against both Gore and Kerry. All he has to do is hold all the blue states, and win a small handful of toss-ups (all leaning his direction right now) and he has more than 270. McCain will have to hold all the red states, and either take a blue state or take every single toss-up state (all of which are leaning Obama). Not outside the realm of possibility, Kerry and Gore came vey close to pulling it off, but they didn't, the odds are long.

[Cadaverous Pallor]

I don't think I can hold my breath for a whole month more

[Tenigma]

Originally Posted by BDBopper

I am starting to hear rumors of an October surprise of massive proportions. the rumors are being fueled by Joe Biden canceling campaign appearances to deal with an illness in his family. The rumor is that Biden is about to step down with Hillary Clinton to replace him.

As others have mentioned, Joe Biden has cancelled public appearances for today and tomorrow because his mother-in-law passed away.

The October surprise is basically that McCain's advertising has been confirmed as going 100% NEGATIVE. They are basically throwing in the kitchen sink, which is what was happening with Camp Hillary in the last month of the primaries.

Palin, as "the wolverine biting at the pant leg of passersby," she has revisited the relationship of Obama with Bill Ayers, starting with her stumping this weekend. She also started mentioning Jeremiah Wright. I'm sure it won't be long before she's also mentioning Rezko.

If nothing else, I'm going to tip my hat to Hillary for vetting all this stuff out on Obama during the primaries. It means none of this is new news, which means it makes Palin just look like she's slinging monkey-poo.

The thing is, Team Hillary was at least smart about the way they did it. Camp McCain, not so much. They were either so insecure or so gleeful that McCain finally gave the go-ahead, that THEY COULDN'T CONTAIN THIS INFORMATION. As the news media was going into the weekend, Republican operatives LEAKED THIS INFORMATION to the media (that McCain's campaign was going to start hitting Obama below the belt).

This gave Obama a huge hand, because they immediately went to work on readjusting their plans for this week. They almost immediately posted a 30-second teaser about McCain's associations with Keating in the Keating 5 savings and loan scandal from the early 1990s.

The Obama campaign released a 12-minute+ video on YouTube today that talked about McCain's association with Keating, and explaining how this is where McCain came from, and talking about McCain's history of wanting DEREGULATION (less government overnight) rather than MORE oversight, which is what McCain is currently trumpeting.

I'm sure Obama won't go completely negative (you don't go negative when you're leading the polls) but there are pro-Obama people who will gladly remind you about Todd and Sarah Palin's associations with an extremist organization in Alaska that condones "domestic terrorism" and wants Alaska to secede from the United States (how patriotic is that?). There's also a pastor that McCain is associated with, who is just as radical and crazy as Jeremiah Wright... in fact it's one of the reasons McCain told his campaign staff relatively early on NOT to touch the Wright issue because he knew that would come home to roost on his nest.

...

The numbers are amazing. I've been going to the barackobama.com site almost everyday now for a year, and you could see how little seeds kept getting planted. One of those little seeds happened earlier this spring, when, even though he hadn't won the primaries yet, he started reaching out to prep for the general election campaign by getting a very very very large and extensive grassroots volunteer force set up in all 50 states. There was a huge drive to get volunteers. Because volunteers are way cheaper than paying for TV advertising, and they are far more effective... nothing as effective as your neighbor chatting with you about the economy and the future, and who to vote for.

These little seedlings are sprouting all over the country. Even in states where it was assumed that there was no chance for a Democrat to win, they still worked the ground. What it did was force the McCain campaign to have to spread itself extraordinarily thin. A good example? Nebraska. Oh my god, let me tell you about Nebraska.

Nebraska has not voted for a Democrat in like 6,000 years (back when man walked among the dinosaurs, as Gov. Palin would tell ya). But unlike a lot of other states, Nebraska does not use a winner-take-all system for the general. They've broken into three precincts. Two of them offer up two electoral votes, and the third offers up just a single one.

But see, the Obama people have been working Nebraska hard. Because if they can even capture a couple of those electoral votes, that could make the difference in the event of a near-tie.

Is Team McCain worried? You betcha! They aren't just putting TV ads in Nebraska. They're sending their big gun: Sarah Palin HERSELF is going to Nebraska to stump this week. For a state that has traditionally been a given for the Republicans, sending Ms. Rising Star herself? UNPRECEDENTED.

A lot of different scenarios can happen for this election. In the worst case, it may be a tie (which Congress has to break). But I think all those seedlings the Obama campaign planted will come to bear fruit.

It's quite possible we will even turn red states into blue. Just imagine. Nebraska. Georgia. Florida. VIRGINIA.

[Tom]

Great post, Tenigma! Thanks or all the info and enthusiasm.

Unfortunately, though, you were a little off on the vote allocation in Nebraska. They give two electoral votes to the candidate who wins statewide, and one electoral apiece vote for the winner of each of the state's three congressional districts. There is a possibility that Obama could be competitive in the states second Congressional district, which includes Omaha.

To back up your final point, I saw two(!) polls today that had Obama up by double digits in Virginia.

[Snowflake]

Originally Posted by Tom

Great post, Tenigma! Thanks or all the info and enthusiasm.

Ditto

Originally Posted by Tom

To back up your final point, I saw two(!) polls today that had Obama up by double digits in Virginia.

:-) Big grin here.
In my neighborhood when I lived in Warrenton, I was the sole blue dot in a sea of red!

[Morrigoon]

Speaking of Omaha, where's Warren Buffett stand on this election? Is he going for Obama? (if I recall he's actually a democrat, isn't he?)

[Alex]

Warren Buffet has endorsed Obama.

[innerSpaceman]

So, do we want Obama to win badly enough that we'd like the entire economy to tank? For millions of people to lose their jobs? For fiscal conditions that will completely cripple the next Administration no matter who wins?

[Morrigoon]

Because Buffett's wrong SO often where the economy is concerned.