Official election predictions - Page 6

CoasterMatt · 11-02-2008, 05:47 PM

I'm willing to bet that a male over the age of 35 will win the presidency.

Gemini Cricket · 11-02-2008, 05:53 PM

And something else I was thinking. I think the polling places are going to be mobbed this election year. Record turnout.

Just a feeling.

scaeagles · 11-02-2008, 06:21 PM

102 will win in AZ in a landslide.

I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided.

I figure Obama has it, but that's some ridiculously different results.

Ghoulish Delight · 11-02-2008, 07:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided.

It's a difference in sample size, sample selection, how they decide to predict liklihood of actually voting (based on previous patterns, based on stated intent, or a combination). And of course bias. That's why you have to look at ALL the respectable polls and pay attention to trends over time, not just look at one poll on one day.

fivethirtyeight.com does the most comprehensive job of breaking these things down, tracking previous bias each poll has, and doing in depth statistical analysis to give a much clearer picture than a single poll number could ever give.

Here's a really good breakdown of how some major pollsters do their thing and their general track record in terms of accuracy and bias.

Alex · 11-02-2008, 06:57 PM

Ruining everybody's hope (on the West Coast) for exciting result viewing parties (most of the people I know up here are going to one, though I'm probably not) when the polls close in Virginia at 4pm PST, the state will be called within an hour. When it goes to Obama, for all intents and purposes it is over.

I'll go out on a limb and say Dems get 60 seats in the Senate and gain 31 in the House.

375 electoral votes for Obama and a popular vote spread of 8.4%.

innerSpaceman · 11-02-2008, 07:02 PM

I still have my election night party fun ... since there's zero suspense for the presidential race ... and a real nail-biter for the more important issue of Prop H8.

Alex · 11-02-2008, 07:03 PM

And if you care about the march to 60 in the Senate, that will be excitement that goes late into the night since if it happens, Ted Stevens seat in Alaska will be the last to switch Dem.

scaeagles · 11-02-2008, 07:34 PM

Thanks....I was speaking rhetorically, as I do understand all of the varying methodologies and pollins samples. That's why I've been watching IBD and Zogby most closely, as they both pretty much nailed the last one.

Ghoulish Delight · 11-02-2008, 07:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Thanks....I was speaking rhetorically, as I do understand all of the varying methodologies and pollins samples. That's why I've been watching IBD and Zogby most closely, as they both pretty much nailed the last one.

Umm, Zogby had Kerry winning. Zogby's been pretty unreliable for a while.

scaeagles · 11-02-2008, 07:53 PM

oK....never mind. Maybe I as thinking of Rasmussen. Was I at least right about IBD? Yikes....can this election just be over please? My brain hurts.

I read something scary.....some article about how the next PResidential election cycle starts 11/5.

11-02-2008, 05:47 PM	#1
CoasterMatt BRAAAAAAAINS! Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: One Step Beyond... Posts: 8,802	I'm willing to bet that a male over the age of 35 will win the presidency. __________________ Do you like my photography? Visit photosbymatt.tumblr.com to purchase prints!
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11-02-2008, 05:53 PM	#2
Gemini Cricket ... Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 13,244	And something else I was thinking. I think the polling places are going to be mobbed this election year. Record turnout. Just a feeling.
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11-02-2008, 06:21 PM	#3
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	102 will win in AZ in a landslide. I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided. I figure Obama has it, but that's some ridiculously different results.
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11-02-2008, 06:57 PM	#5
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Ruining everybody's hope (on the West Coast) for exciting result viewing parties (most of the people I know up here are going to one, though I'm probably not) when the polls close in Virginia at 4pm PST, the state will be called within an hour. When it goes to Obama, for all intents and purposes it is over. I'll go out on a limb and say Dems get 60 seats in the Senate and gain 31 in the House. 375 electoral votes for Obama and a popular vote spread of 8.4%.
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11-02-2008, 07:02 PM	#6
innerSpaceman Kink of Swank Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Inner Space Posts: 13,075	I still have my election night party fun ... since there's zero suspense for the presidential race ... and a real nail-biter for the more important issue of Prop H8.
	Submit to Quotes

11-02-2008, 07:03 PM	#7
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	And if you care about the march to 60 in the Senate, that will be excitement that goes late into the night since if it happens, Ted Stevens seat in Alaska will be the last to switch Dem.
	Submit to Quotes

11-02-2008, 07:34 PM	#8
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	Thanks....I was speaking rhetorically, as I do understand all of the varying methodologies and pollins samples. That's why I've been watching IBD and Zogby most closely, as they both pretty much nailed the last one.
	Submit to Quotes

11-02-2008, 07:53 PM	#10
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	oK....never mind. Maybe I as thinking of Rasmussen. Was I at least right about IBD? Yikes....can this election just be over please? My brain hurts. I read something scary.....some article about how the next PResidential election cycle starts 11/5.
	Submit to Quotes