All About McCain

[Alex]

I was discussing polling today and I think this may be the year that the major polls gets bit in the ass by a major demographic change: the abandonment of landline telphones combined with the fact that it is illegal to poll cell phone numbers.

Those demographics most likely to have no landline and just a cell phone are going to be underrepresented in these polls and there is little the poll takers can do about it. This has been discussed in the last two elections but it is a trend that has really accelerated since the last one.

As of December 2006 the number was already up to nearly 30% of people 30 or younger no longer had a landline. And this is an age group that skews in Obama's favor. As does that fact that cell phone only is much more common in urban than suburban or rural areas.

Of course the polling companies attempt to balance their surveys to account for this but they are just guessing and guessing with a number that is changing quickly. On top of that they are also having to make guesses on how much they need to change the definition of "likely voter" since if Obama can deliver the youth vote he appears to be inspiring that is also uncounted since many will not have the historic voting pattern that surveys look for in defining "likely voter."

I'm not saying they will get it wrong, but I see a huge potential for it. And it could go either way, if they overweight for cell phone only or if they overstimate Obama's ability to get young people to vote rather than just wearing t-shirts then they'll be underestimating McCain.