All About McCain - Page 35

Morrigoon · 09-01-2008, 04:41 AM

She missed the memo.

Alex · 09-01-2008, 08:24 AM

I was discussing polling today and I think this may be the year that the major polls gets bit in the ass by a major demographic change: the abandonment of landline telphones combined with the fact that it is illegal to poll cell phone numbers.

Those demographics most likely to have no landline and just a cell phone are going to be underrepresented in these polls and there is little the poll takers can do about it. This has been discussed in the last two elections but it is a trend that has really accelerated since the last one.

As of December 2006 the number was already up to nearly 30% of people 30 or younger no longer had a landline. And this is an age group that skews in Obama's favor. As does that fact that cell phone only is much more common in urban than suburban or rural areas.

Of course the polling companies attempt to balance their surveys to account for this but they are just guessing and guessing with a number that is changing quickly. On top of that they are also having to make guesses on how much they need to change the definition of "likely voter" since if Obama can deliver the youth vote he appears to be inspiring that is also uncounted since many will not have the historic voting pattern that surveys look for in defining "likely voter."

I'm not saying they will get it wrong, but I see a huge potential for it. And it could go either way, if they overweight for cell phone only or if they overstimate Obama's ability to get young people to vote rather than just wearing t-shirts then they'll be underestimating McCain.

scaeagles · 09-01-2008, 09:13 AM

Very interesting....apparently Palin's 17 year old daughter is currently pregnant. 5 months. Apparently this shoots down the rumor of the 4 month old Trig being her daughter.

Alex · 09-01-2008, 09:47 AM

Apparently her support of abstinence only sex education didn't work out too well for her.

Gemini Cricket · 09-01-2008, 10:42 AM

17, pregnant, not married... tsk tsk tsk. Good thing Palin's a Republican or else there'd be controversy.

Cadaverous Pallor · 09-01-2008, 10:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I read it.

Seriously, though, one speech to me does not mean that her political history goes out the window.

The speech itself was insistent and made its point over and over and over. "Think of the future", "this isn't about me", "the issues are what matters", "every vote matters", "no one should wait on the sidelines", "can't afford 4 more years", "I'll campaign as hard as I can for O", etc etc etc. Not word one of it was contrary. I guess you can ignore the speech entirely if you like, but I can't, because it happened.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Alex

I was discussing polling today and I think this may be the year that the major polls gets bit in the ass by a major demographic change: the abandonment of landline telphones combined with the fact that it is illegal to poll cell phone numbers.

I've read about this too, though when you mention it to doubters and conservatives all you get is "that's spin, wishful thinking, blah blah." Basic fact - many young people don't have landlines at all.

scaeagles · 09-01-2008, 11:38 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cadaverous Pallor

I guess you can ignore the speech entirely if you like, but I can't, because it happened.

Sigh. Not ignoring her speech. Just trying to say that one speech does not change my opinion of her as someone who is concerned primarily with herself rather than her party. I believe the proof will be in what happens over the next two months, not what she said in one speech.

I would add , since McCain has moved significantly to the right on tax cuts and other such things, that I believe McCain, once in office, will act upon what he has been saying. Campaigns make people do and say all sorts of things that don't really mean much.

scaeagles · 09-01-2008, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cadaverous Pallor

I've read about this too, though when you mention it to doubters and conservatives all you get is "that's spin, wishful thinking, blah blah." Basic fact - many young people don't have landlines at all.

I don't regard this as wishful thinking at all, I just think pollsters have typically been pretty good at their craft, and since it is their livelihood, none want the stigma of getting it completely wrong. I figure they are doing all sorts of things to get the numbers right. This is certainly a new twist, and they may be completely wrong.

Strangler Lewis · 09-01-2008, 12:23 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Very interesting....apparently Palin's 17 year old daughter is currently pregnant. 5 months. Apparently this shoots down the rumor of the 4 month old Trig being her daughter.

You Republicans: always a spare arrow in the quiver.

scaeagles · 09-01-2008, 12:39 PM

HA! I have three and three is FAR too many for me.

09-01-2008, 04:41 AM	#341
Morrigoon I throw stones at houses Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: Location: Location Posts: 9,534	She missed the memo. __________________ http://bash.org/?top "It is useless for sheep to pass a resolution in favor of vegetarianism while wolves remain of a different opinion." -- William Randolph Inge
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09-01-2008, 08:24 AM	#342
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	I was discussing polling today and I think this may be the year that the major polls gets bit in the ass by a major demographic change: the abandonment of landline telphones combined with the fact that it is illegal to poll cell phone numbers. Those demographics most likely to have no landline and just a cell phone are going to be underrepresented in these polls and there is little the poll takers can do about it. This has been discussed in the last two elections but it is a trend that has really accelerated since the last one. As of December 2006 the number was already up to nearly 30% of people 30 or younger no longer had a landline. And this is an age group that skews in Obama's favor. As does that fact that cell phone only is much more common in urban than suburban or rural areas. Of course the polling companies attempt to balance their surveys to account for this but they are just guessing and guessing with a number that is changing quickly. On top of that they are also having to make guesses on how much they need to change the definition of "likely voter" since if Obama can deliver the youth vote he appears to be inspiring that is also uncounted since many will not have the historic voting pattern that surveys look for in defining "likely voter." I'm not saying they will get it wrong, but I see a huge potential for it. And it could go either way, if they overweight for cell phone only or if they overstimate Obama's ability to get young people to vote rather than just wearing t-shirts then they'll be underestimating McCain.
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09-01-2008, 09:13 AM	#343
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	Very interesting....apparently Palin's 17 year old daughter is currently pregnant. 5 months. Apparently this shoots down the rumor of the 4 month old Trig being her daughter.
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09-01-2008, 09:47 AM	#344
Alex . Join Date: Feb 2005 Posts: 13,354	Apparently her support of abstinence only sex education didn't work out too well for her.
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09-01-2008, 10:42 AM	#345
Gemini Cricket ... Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 13,244	17, pregnant, not married... tsk tsk tsk. Good thing Palin's a Republican or else there'd be controversy.
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09-01-2008, 12:39 PM	#350
scaeagles I LIKE! Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 7,819	HA! I have three and three is FAR too many for me.
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