Yes, we can.

[scaeagles]

Why, yes, Morrigoon, that is precisely what I mean.

And I don't think Hillary is going away any time soon. If you look at the electoral college counts of the states Obama and Hillary have each won, Hillary has HUGE advantages. Without FL and MI, she's up 240-141. If you throw those two in, she's up 284-141. That's huge, and you know she knows that, and you know the super delegates know that. She's got big, big mo right now.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Why, yes, Morrigoon, that is precisely what I mean.

And I don't think Hillary is going away any time soon. If you look at the electoral college counts of the states Obama and Hillary have each won, Hillary has HUGE advantages. Without FL and MI, she's up 240-141. If you throw those two in, she's up 284-141. That's huge, and you know she knows that, and you know the super delegates know that. She's got big, big mo right now.

Someone needs to remind you and Hillary that electoral college counts matter only in the general election, against John McCain. Whether Hillary can beat Obama in big states is NOT the same question as whether Hillary can do better than Obama against John McCain in big states.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Someone needs to remind you and Hillary that electoral college counts matter only in the general election, against John McCain. Whether Hillary can beat Obama in big states is NOT the same question as whether Hillary can do better than Obama against John McCain in big states.

Gee, someone, I think I'm aware of that fact. I just find it hard to beleive that with the exit polling data, particularly in PA when something like 60% of Catholics who voted for Hillary in the primary said they would never vote for Obama, that the dem party and super delegates are aware and deathly afraid of this fact.

Hillary isn't going anywhere. Nor should she.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Gee, someone, I think I'm aware of that fact. I just find it hard to beleive that with the exit polling data, particularly in PA when something like 60% of Catholics who voted for Hillary in the primary said they would never vote for Obama, that the dem party and super delegates are aware and deathly afraid of this fact.

And what percentage of moderate voters that voted Republican in '00 and '04 would never vote for Hillary? And what percentage of Obama voters would never vote Hillary. And what percentage of voters would vote for Nader over Hillary or McCain.

Sorry, but "I win in Me vs. Obama in big states" is such a tiny portion of the overall picture that it's pretty irrelevant.

Hillary isn't going anywhere. Nor should she.

As I said before, whether she should or not is up to the party leadership. Dean was turning up the heat to clarify the picture leading up to PA. The coming week will show if he wants to really put the pressure on.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Sorry, but "I win in Me vs. Obama in big states" is such a tiny portion of the overall picture that it's pretty irrelevant.

Couldn't disagree more, and it has to be something the dem party leadership will consider.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Couldn't disagree more, and it has to be something the dem party leadership will consider.

I'm looking through the polls of the theoretical Obama vs. McCain and Clinton vs. McCain by state. Obama's got NY and MI. Clinton's got PA, OH, FL. McCain's got VA and TX, but Obama is significantly closer to him in both of those. Either Clinton or Obama takes NJ and CA with Clinton doing a little better in NJ and Obama a little better in CA.

Those stats come out pretty much a wash, and that's before taking into account the fact that the margins involved are almost universally tiny. Either less than, or barely over, the statistical margin of error for the polls. I just don't see the evidence of Cilnton's supposed big-state dominance in a general election. Wins over Obama just do not translate directly, as she'd like everyone to believe, to wins over McCain (or, rather, wins over McCain that Obama wouldn't get).

[3894]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

She's got big, big mo right now.

Pfft. She could only pull that summers-in-Scranton crap in Pennsylvania. Indiana is May 6; Indiana is close to Illinois.