Offshore Drilling Ban to be Lifted by Bush

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Okay, but over what time scale is "gradually"? It's going to be 20 years (I don't buy the 10 year time line) before we're even pulling it out of the ground in appreciable amounts and have a workable distribution network. Another 10 years beyond that it will maybe start to have an effect on our need for the world oil market.

To me, there is one, and only one, endgame. Get off of oil.

I see it happening much sooner than the 10 year time line.

I agree on the endgame. But the basic functions of oil in terms of what it currently does for us are simply not going to be replaced that quickly. I'm a HUGE nuclear power proponent. Solar and wind? Love 'em. But how far away is it until those (or anything else) are providing for the primary usage of oil, being transportation? Much, much farther away than 10 years.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I see it happening much sooner than the 10 year time line.

I agree on the endgame. But the basic functions of oil in terms of what it currently does for us are simply not going to be replaced that quickly. I'm a HUGE nuclear power proponent. Solar and wind? Love 'em. But how far away is it until those (or anything else) are providing for the primary usage of oil, being transportation? Much, much farther away than 10 years.

Even the most optimistic proponents of offshore drilling say 10 years. When was the last time you saw any industry in this country get something done faster than the best-case-estimates? Based on history, I'd say doubling that to 20 years is generous.