Yes, we can.

[Gemini Cricket]

I have mixed feelings about the Powell endorsement. What he said was eloquent and hit the mark. But I also remember him with a vial in his hands talking about WMDs, assisting in the push to go to war with Iraq. And Obama's praise of the man and telling the media Powell will be an adviser of his concerns me a great deal.

[Ghoulish Delight]

I don't remember where I posted it, but fivethirtyeight.com showed some numbers that said 6% of responders would not vote for Obama because he is black, while 9% said they would vote for Obama simply because is black. You've got to figure that the 6% number is low (the Bradley effect), but even with that fudge factor built in, the idiots pretty much balance each other out.

But none of that has anything to do with the hateful questioning of Powell's motivations. Cause, really, he's shown himself to be such a racially motivated wag in his career, right?



ETA: re: GC, he's also since made it known that he was very much on the outside of the administration and fed very distorted information and that he very much regrets being involved and influential in that decision making process.

[flippyshark]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I think what he's talking about is related to the Bradley effect (referring to, i think, a CA governors election?).

The Bradley effect is basically that white people lied to pollsters about who they voted for because they didn't want anyone to think they didn't vote for Bradley because he was black. Polling showed Bradley was going to win by double digits, but he lost.

Conversely, I would suppose there are a lot of people who feel guilty about racism and may indeed vote for a black man simply because he is black. Isn't that as valid as the accusation that many won't vote for him because he is black?

It will be impossible to know if this is a factor until the event is over. For what it's worth, I'm not voting for Alan Keyes, and I feel no white liberal guilt for that fact whatsoever.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by wendybeth

So sure, there are people who will vote for Obama because he's a black man, but I'm not so sure I buy Scaeagle's Bradley explanation. I cannot see where in that statement that Will mentions this- he's seems pretty specific about the black guilt thing actually moving people to cast a vote, not lying to pollsters.

I'm just theorizing using that well known example.

I don't understand why it's so unreasonable, really. What he's saying is that in the current USA environment of race relations, yes, there are those who won't vote for him because he's black, and that there may be more who vote for him because he is, and that group includes white people with angst over days with race relations that were much, much worse than they are now.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by flippyshark

It will be impossible to know if this is a factor until the event is over. For what it's worth, I'm not voting for Alan Keyes, and I feel no white liberal guilt for that fact whatsoever.

And I believe most people are like you. And like me. It's about policy, not about race.

As far as Powell goes, though, Powell has said that having a black President would be "electrifying". That may not be his overwhelming motivation, but it is apparent that it comes into play a bit because of that statement.

[wendybeth]

Because he's being dismissive of Obama's voter base, calling into question their intelligence and motivation. He doesn't get it. Well, actually I think he does get it, but the truth is far scarier than the lame-assed excuse he is offering up.

[Gemini Cricket]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

...and that he very much regrets being involved and influential in that decision making process.

Which he should. When Powell started waving the 'let's bomb Iraq' flag, I was convinced that the world had gone mad. Bush, Cheney, Powell among others are the faces of the Iraq War to me. This endorsement, as effective as it might be for Mr. Obama, doesn't change the fact that I think Powell didn't ask enough questions and didn't push back hard enough during the ramp up to the war. Even if he did feel that he was on the outside, that should have made him question what was going on even more.

[innerSpaceman]

Yep, Powell's credibility is zero with me. And frankly, I think the endorsements of people and newspapers rate near zero with the vast majority of voters.

[alphabassettgrrl]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Being pro-war (assuming you mean Iraq) is intolerant? I'm not sure how.

Being pro-life is intolerant? Certainly blowing up clinics and threatening to shoot abortion doctors is, but it's been a really long time since I can remember such a thing happening, and those things have never been a platform of the republican party.

Pro-war: culture of violence, as opposed to violence being an option of last resort. Not sure I'd use "intolerant" but certainly undesirable in my book. A person (or nation) can be strong without always threatening violence.

While blowing up abortion clinics and killing doctors isn't part of the conservative platform, I didn't see the condemnation of it coming from the Right.

Originally Posted by Strangler Lewis

Or as Bill Clinton said, "safe, legal and rare."

I'll drink to that!

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer

There are statistics that show child abuse and neglect rates dropping in the 60s after R v. W was implemented. There are also statistics that show the number of new gang members dropping to about 15 years later. This was attributed to abortion becoming legal and women who didn't want [would resent, abuse, neglect] their kids ultimately not having them.

I heard that on a radio show. I'm sure there's documentation somewhere.

Originally Posted by SacTown Chronic

Sent in my absentee ballot yesterday.

Hurray!!!

Originally Posted by Gemini Cricket

Amy Poelher: Funny as heck, you betcha. The woman is rapping and still working on the show and is like ready to give birth like right this second.
...
The Real Sarah Palin: Not all that funny. Lame. Good sport, but boring to watch.
...
I thought the rap was decent, but I thought they could have gone a thousand different places with Palin and kind of just let her sit there... The short shot where Palin and Fey crossed paths at the beginning was great.

What? The pregnancy's real? Huh. I haven't been following the show. She was funny though. I agree that Palin in person wasn't as funny as the SNL folks but she was a good sport and I'll give her props for that. Enjoy your 15 minutes, dear, and then go back to Alaska. I loved the bit at the beginning with Sarah and Tina Fey! Awesome.

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Conversely, I would suppose there are a lot of people who feel guilty about racism and may indeed vote for a black man simply because he is black. Isn't that as valid as the accusation that many won't vote for him because he is black?

I absolutely agree. Please vote on issues, not demographics. I'm likely going to vote for Obama, but not out of guilt. I like his style, I like how he reacts to things that happen, and I like most of his policies. I want people to vote on issues, and the level of ignorance out there in the world makes me absolutely cringe.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by BarTopDancer
There are statistics that show child abuse and neglect rates dropping in the 60s after R v. W was implemented. There are also statistics that show the number of new gang members dropping to about 15 years later. This was attributed to abortion becoming legal and women who didn't want [would resent, abuse, neglect] their kids ultimately not having them.

Originally Posted by alphabassettgrrl

I heard that on a radio show. I'm sure there's documentation somewhere.

The theory is explored at length in the book Freaknomics, and elaboration of the theory and criticism of it can be found here.