Official election predictions

[scaeagles]

102 will win in AZ in a landslide.

I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided.

I figure Obama has it, but that's some ridiculously different results.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided.

It's a difference in sample size, sample selection, how they decide to predict liklihood of actually voting (based on previous patterns, based on stated intent, or a combination). And of course bias. That's why you have to look at ALL the respectable polls and pay attention to trends over time, not just look at one poll on one day.

fivethirtyeight.com does the most comprehensive job of breaking these things down, tracking previous bias each poll has, and doing in depth statistical analysis to give a much clearer picture than a single poll number could ever give.

Here's a really good breakdown of how some major pollsters do their thing and their general track record in terms of accuracy and bias.