Official election predictions

[Gemini Cricket]

Originally Posted by CoasterMatt

Aren't you supposed to seek immediate health care if you experience an election lasting 4 years?

lol!

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by Alex

Damn.

IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen were both pretty good in 2004. IBD/TIPP currently has 46.7-44.6 Obama and Rasmussen is 51-46 Obama.

Neither uses cell phone polling, the full implications of which are unkown right now. The polls that do use cell phone polling pretty consistently show a larger lead for Obama.

[Tenigma]

Originally Posted by Morrigoon

Posterboard....................................... ...........$1.10
Sharpie........................................... .............$0.99
Standing on a busy corner for a couple hours......$free

Knowing you did everything you could to prevent legalized discrimination...... priceless

There's a group of YES ON 8 people who stand at the intersection by my work. Alex suggested I make a big sign that says "BIGOTS AHEAD" and then stand on the sidewalk ahead of them. rofl

[Stan4dSteph]

Originally Posted by Tenigma

There's a group of YES ON 8 people who stand at the intersection by my work. Alex suggested I make a big sign that says "BIGOTS AHEAD" and then stand on the sidewalk ahead of them. rofl

That would be awesome.

[Cadaverous Pallor]

Originally Posted by Gemini Cricket

Obama's win percentage: 93.7%. Is that a realistic prediction?

Yes, the concept is, if the polls are right, Obama has a 93% chance of winning. Even the weakest polls for Obama show him as having more than enough electorals without any surprises, I believe.

[BDBopper]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I read something scary.....some article about how the next PResidential election cycle starts 11/5.

i sincerely doubt that for most the election cycle will start on Wednesday. There were several minor candididates, especially on the Republican side that only made the ballot in a few states that had four year efforts just because it would take that long to get any traction if any. However unless you are a real Politico you won't notice anything major until after 2010.

Though technically those articles are right. It is just that most people won't notice because a lot of it will be behind the scenes. For example assuming Obama wins tomorow the grassroots effort for Huckabee starts Wednesday. But all that will amount to for the next couple of years is planning, researching, and saving money.

Yes the next Presidential election cycle will begin on Wednesday. You just won't be bombarded with it until January of 2011 at the earliest because there is no need for that.

[Gemini Cricket]

Originally Posted by Tenigma

There's a group of YES ON 8 people who stand at the intersection by my work. Alex suggested I make a big sign that says "BIGOTS AHEAD" and then stand on the sidewalk ahead of them. rofl

Best idea ever!

[Ghoulish Delight]

Well, as the pollsters start rolling out their final estimates, all the major ones have Obama up by at least 5 points nationally. Many models are predicting that all he has to do is hold one or two of the battleground states, most of which he currently leads in. Some even say he can lose all the battleground states and still get the electoral win.

I'm upgrading my mood to cautious optimism on the Obama front.

[cirquelover]

So according to ESPN you need to watch football tonight. They claim tht if Washington wins the same party will stay in the White House but if they lose then the other party wins.....I sure hope Washington loses tonight. They claim that it has been so for the last 17, that's a lot of elections!

[Alex]

Not that such coincidences mean anything, but the streak of 17 actually only goes through the 2000 election. This predictor was wrong in 2004 when Green Bay beat Washington, meaning that John Kerry should have won the election.