Official election predictions

[Alex]

Ruining everybody's hope (on the West Coast) for exciting result viewing parties (most of the people I know up here are going to one, though I'm probably not) when the polls close in Virginia at 4pm PST, the state will be called within an hour. When it goes to Obama, for all intents and purposes it is over.

I'll go out on a limb and say Dems get 60 seats in the Senate and gain 31 in the House.

375 electoral votes for Obama and a popular vote spread of 8.4%.

[innerSpaceman]

I still have my election night party fun ... since there's zero suspense for the presidential race ... and a real nail-biter for the more important issue of Prop H8.

[Alex]

And if you care about the march to 60 in the Senate, that will be excitement that goes late into the night since if it happens, Ted Stevens seat in Alaska will be the last to switch Dem.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I just don't get the polls. Everything from 11% Obama to 2% Obama with 8% undecided.

It's a difference in sample size, sample selection, how they decide to predict liklihood of actually voting (based on previous patterns, based on stated intent, or a combination). And of course bias. That's why you have to look at ALL the respectable polls and pay attention to trends over time, not just look at one poll on one day.

fivethirtyeight.com does the most comprehensive job of breaking these things down, tracking previous bias each poll has, and doing in depth statistical analysis to give a much clearer picture than a single poll number could ever give.

Here's a really good breakdown of how some major pollsters do their thing and their general track record in terms of accuracy and bias.

[scaeagles]

Thanks....I was speaking rhetorically, as I do understand all of the varying methodologies and pollins samples. That's why I've been watching IBD and Zogby most closely, as they both pretty much nailed the last one.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Thanks....I was speaking rhetorically, as I do understand all of the varying methodologies and pollins samples. That's why I've been watching IBD and Zogby most closely, as they both pretty much nailed the last one.

Umm, Zogby had Kerry winning. Zogby's been pretty unreliable for a while.

[scaeagles]

oK....never mind. Maybe I as thinking of Rasmussen. Was I at least right about IBD? Yikes....can this election just be over please? My brain hurts.

I read something scary.....some article about how the next PResidential election cycle starts 11/5.

[Alex]

You've said that many times (about Zogby having been most accurate in 2004) and while that didn't mesh with my memory, it didn't matter much so I didn't go look.

But I finally did (football is boring me today) and I'm finding my recollection seems to have been right. Here's RealClearPolitics's post election polling analysis from 2004 (linking to them because I know it is a source you like). Notice that they have Zogby towards the bottom half of the pack on the national horse race and here's their overall review of Zogby's performance in the 2004 election (bolding mine):

As we all know, Zogby had been on record for months saying that Kerry was going to win this race. Despite his final tracking poll that put Bush ahead by one point nationally, Zogby's polling at the state level reflected his belief that Kerry was going to be the beneficiary of huge turnout - especially among the youth vote. The result is that Zogby missed three of the eleven states he polled in (FL, IA, and NM), had a relatively high error rate across the board (3.8%), and his numbers generally skewed in favor of John Kerry.

Adding insult to injury, Zogby's bizarre election day antics calling for "surprises" in Colorado and Virginia and a decisive 311 electoral vote victory for Kerry suggest he was relying on (not to mention taken in by) the badly skewed early exit poll data.

Let's be honest: Zogby's conduct this year bordered on outrageous. No other independent pollster was out making public predictions of a John Kerry or George W. Bush victory months before hand. And no other pollster decided to wait until 5:30pm Eastern time on election day to post their final numbers.

Per them, if you want most accurate (on the horse race number) from 2004, then you want to be using Pew (currently has 52-46 in favor of Obama) or Battleground (can't find current polling).

[CoasterMatt]

Aren't you supposed to seek immediate health care if you experience an election lasting 4 years?

[Alex]

Damn.

IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen were both pretty good in 2004. IBD/TIPP currently has 46.7-44.6 Obama and Rasmussen is 51-46 Obama.