Offshore Drilling Ban to be Lifted by Bush

[scaeagles]

Major benefit you omitted in drilling that I believe is the biggest key (this also equates to a detriment on the no drill side):

Gradual removal of dependence on foreign oil and the effects of potential supply disruption in unstable areas of the world. This lowers the price of oil and shields it from some speculative pressures that have immediate and obvious effects on the economy.

It isn't about increased supply. It's about being sure that our supply - and therefore a large portion of our economic well being - is not subject to the whim of crazy men like Chavez and Ahmadinejad or terrorist action in the Persian Gulf region.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

Major benefit you omitted in both that I believe is the biggest key:

Gradual removal of dependence on foreign oil and the effects of potential supply disruption in unstable areas of the world. This lowers the price of oil and shields it from some speculative pressures that have immediate and obvious effects on the economy.

It isn't about increased supply. It's about being sure that our supply - and therefore a large portion of our economic well being - is not subject to the whim of crazy men like Chavez and Ahmadinejad or terrorist action in the Persian Gulf region.

Okay, but over what time scale is "gradually"? It's going to be 20 years (I don't buy the 10 year time line) before we're even pulling it out of the ground in appreciable amounts and have a workable distribution network. Another 10 years beyond that it will maybe start to have an effect on our need for the world oil market. And then how long exactly will that last? That's going to run out eventually, in far less than the 130-150 years that world supplies are estimated to last. And we'll be right back where we started.

To me, there is one, and only one, endgame. Get off of oil. Delaying the depletion of oil, shifting the source of oil while we're depleting it are meaningless bandaids. We're dead if we don't get off oil and the window to do so is smaller than the time needed for any of this drilling to do us any good.

Equation remains the same.

[scaeagles]

Originally Posted by Ghoulish Delight

Okay, but over what time scale is "gradually"? It's going to be 20 years (I don't buy the 10 year time line) before we're even pulling it out of the ground in appreciable amounts and have a workable distribution network. Another 10 years beyond that it will maybe start to have an effect on our need for the world oil market.

To me, there is one, and only one, endgame. Get off of oil.

I see it happening much sooner than the 10 year time line.

I agree on the endgame. But the basic functions of oil in terms of what it currently does for us are simply not going to be replaced that quickly. I'm a HUGE nuclear power proponent. Solar and wind? Love 'em. But how far away is it until those (or anything else) are providing for the primary usage of oil, being transportation? Much, much farther away than 10 years.

[Ghoulish Delight]

Originally Posted by scaeagles

I see it happening much sooner than the 10 year time line.

I agree on the endgame. But the basic functions of oil in terms of what it currently does for us are simply not going to be replaced that quickly. I'm a HUGE nuclear power proponent. Solar and wind? Love 'em. But how far away is it until those (or anything else) are providing for the primary usage of oil, being transportation? Much, much farther away than 10 years.

Even the most optimistic proponents of offshore drilling say 10 years. When was the last time you saw any industry in this country get something done faster than the best-case-estimates? Based on history, I'd say doubling that to 20 years is generous.